Monday, April 6, 2026

13 games on the slate · 7 high-edge games

Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox

Brandon Woodruff vs Brayan Bello · 2026-04-06T22:45Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 41°F, 16mph W (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (41°f)

Pick: Boston Red Sox +1.5 Model Estimate: 16.1% edge Units: 0.5

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians

Michael Wacha vs Tanner Bibee · 2026-04-06T22:10Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 35°F, 6mph S (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 4.3 points favors the away starter

Pick: Cleveland Guardians +1.5 Model Estimate: 15.9% edge Units: 0.5

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Angels

Chris Sale vs Jose Soriano · 2026-04-07T01:38Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 63°F, 2mph E (calm)

Away traveled 1915mi

Pick: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Model Estimate: 12.9% edge Units: 0.5

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants

Andrew Painter vs Adrian Houser · 2026-04-07T01:45Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 52°F, 9mph W (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (52°f). away traveled 2515mi

Pick: San Francisco Giants +1.5 Model Estimate: 12.2% edge Units: 0.5

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

Casey Mize vs Joe Ryan · 2026-04-06T23:40Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 32°F, 13mph NW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (32°f)

Pick: Detroit Tigers +1.5 Model Estimate: 11.9% edge Units: 0.5

Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies

Cody Bolton vs Ryan Feltner · 2026-04-07T00:40Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 38°F, 2mph SW (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 3.1 points favors the home starter

Pick: Colorado Rockies +1.5 Model Estimate: 11.0% edge Units: 0.5

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers

Logan Gilbert vs Jacob deGrom · 2026-04-07T00:05Z

HIGH STRONG – warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Away traveled 1668mi

Pick: Texas Rangers +1.5 Model Estimate: 10.1% edge Units: 0.5

St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals

Andre Pallante vs Zack Littell · 2026-04-06T22:45Z

MEDIUM STRONG – warning 49°F, 8mph NW (crosswind)

Pitcher fip gap of 3.3 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (49°f)

Pick: Washington Nationals +1.5 Model Estimate: 9.8% edge Units: 0.5

Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins

Brandon Williamson vs Janson Junk · 2026-04-06T22:40Z

MEDIUM STRONG – warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 5.0 points favors the home starter

Pick: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 9.1% edge Units: 0.5

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays

Justin Wrobleski vs Max Scherzer · 2026-04-06T23:07Z

MEDIUM STRONG – warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the away starter. away traveled 2170mi

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 Model Estimate: 8.8% edge Units: 0.5

Chicago Cubs @ Tampa Bay Rays

Jameson Taillon vs Shane McClanahan · 2026-04-06T20:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN – warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Model finds lean 7.3% edge in this matchup

Pick: Chicago Cubs +1.5 Model Estimate: 7.3% edge Units: 0.25

Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox

None vs Grant Taylor · 2026-04-06T23:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN – warning 42°F, 11mph NW (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.3 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (42°f)

Pick: Chicago White Sox +1.5 Model Estimate: 5.0% edge Units: 0.25

San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates

German Marquez vs Bubba Chandler · 2026-04-06T22:40Z

LOW SKIP – warning 40°F, 7mph SW (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.5 points favors the home starter. away traveled 2112mi

Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5 Model Estimate: 3.0% edge Units: 0.02

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 13-game slate
Strongest signal: MIL at BOS with 16.1% model edge
4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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