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Tuesday, April 21, 2026

4 games on the slate · 1 high-confidence game

1 High 3 Medium 0 Low

Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians

Ryan Weiss vs Parker Messick · 2026-04-21T22:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 71°F, 13mph S (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (71°f)

Forecast: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Model Estimate: 16.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs

Jesus Luzardo vs Shota Imanaga · 2026-04-21T23:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 58°F, 6mph SE (calm), 90% humidity

Model finds lean 8.7% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Chicago Cubs +1.5 Model Estimate: 8.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

Jacob Lopez vs Luis Castillo · 2026-04-22T01:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 2.0 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Seattle Mariners -1.5 Model Estimate: 7.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Randy Vasquez vs TBD · 2026-04-22T00:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 81°F, 13mph SE (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (81°f)

Forecast: San Diego Padres -1.5 Model Estimate: 7.1% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 1 high-edge games across today's 4-game slate
  • Strongest signal: HOU at CLE with 16.5% model edge
  • 1 game with notable weather impact on projected totals

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