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Wednesday, April 22, 2026

5 games on the slate · 2 high-confidence games

2 High 3 Medium 0 Low

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Walker Buehler vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 2026-04-23T00:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 77°F, 13mph W (crosswind)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (77°f)

Forecast: UNDER 12.0 Model Estimate: 23.3% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

Martin Perez vs Zack Littell · 2026-04-22T22:45Z

HIGH STRONG warning 76°F, 5mph NE (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.6 points favors the away starter

Forecast: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Model Estimate: 18.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers

Chad Patrick vs Casey Mize · 2026-04-22T22:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 73°F, 8mph E (calm)

Model finds lean 9.8% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers (+113) Model Estimate: 9.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays

Brandon Williamson vs Nick Martinez · 2026-04-22T17:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Model finds lean 9.4% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Cincinnati Reds (+117) Model Estimate: 9.4% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins

Kyle Leahy vs Janson Junk · 2026-04-22T16:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Model finds lean 8.5% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Miami Marlins -1.5 Model Estimate: 8.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 2 high-edge games across today's 5-game slate
  • Strongest signal: SD at COL with 23.3% model edge
  • Model leans underdog in 2 high-edge spots

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