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Saturday, April 25, 2026

10 games on the slate · 7 high-confidence games

7 High 3 Medium 0 Low

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

German Marquez vs Zac Gallen · 2026-04-25T22:05Z

HIGH STRONG

Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the home starter

Forecast: UNDER 15.5 Model Estimate: 24.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

New York Yankees @ Houston Astros

Ryan Weathers vs Mike Burrows · 2026-04-25T23:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the away starter

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 22.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Colin Rea vs Roki Sasaki · 2026-04-25T23:15Z

HIGH STRONG warning 56°F, 12mph W (blowing out), 83% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 2.6 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (56°f)

Forecast: UNDER 9.5 Model Estimate: 19.4% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Cleveland Guardians @ Toronto Blue Jays

Joey Cantillo vs Kevin Gausman · 2026-04-25T19:07Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Model finds strong 19.2% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 19.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays

Bailey Ober vs Shane McClanahan · 2026-04-25T20:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Model finds strong 19.2% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 19.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

Mitch Keller vs Jacob Misiorowski · 2026-04-25T23:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Model finds strong 17.6% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 17.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

Garrett Crochet vs Trevor Rogers · 2026-04-25T16:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning 66°F, 12mph E (crosswind)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (66°f)

Forecast: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 Model Estimate: 14.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.2

Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox

Jake Irvin vs Noah Schultz · 2026-04-25T20:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 46°F, 14mph N (crosswind), 91% humidity

Weather factor in play (46°f)

Forecast: Chicago White Sox -1.5 Model Estimate: 9.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.2

Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals

Walbert Urena vs Cole Ragans · 2026-04-25T23:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 77°F, 9mph SE (crosswind)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.9 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (77°f)

Forecast: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Model Estimate: 7.4% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.2

Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

Jose Quintana vs Kodai Senga · 2026-04-25T20:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 44°F, 8mph E (crosswind), 81% humidity

Weather factor in play (44°f). away traveled 1635mi

Forecast: Colorado Rockies +1.5 Model Estimate: 6.1% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.2

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 10-game slate
  • Strongest signal: SD at AZ with 24.8% model edge
  • 1 game with notable weather impact on projected totals
  • Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot

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