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Saturday, May 2, 2026

11 games on the slate · 10 high-confidence games

10 High 1 Medium 0 Low

Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics

Slade Cecconi vs Jacob Lopez · 2026-05-02T20:05Z

HIGH STRONG

Away traveled 2151mi

Forecast: UNDER 10.0 Model Estimate: 24.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

Chris Sale vs Chase Dollander · 2026-05-03T00:10Z

HIGH STRONG

Model finds strong 20.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Colorado Rockies +1.5 Model Estimate: 20.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Ryne Nelson vs Shota Imanaga · 2026-05-02T18:20Z

HIGH STRONG

Pitcher fip gap of 3.4 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Chicago Cubs -1.5 Model Estimate: 19.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Roki Sasaki vs Michael McGreevy · 2026-05-02T23:15Z

HIGH STRONG

Pitcher fip gap of 2.7 points favors the home starter. away traveled 1586mi

Forecast: St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 Model Estimate: 19.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Rhett Lowder vs Carmen Mlodzinski · 2026-05-02T20:05Z

HIGH STRONG

Model finds strong 19.2% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 19.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

Kumar Rocker vs Keider Montero · 2026-05-02T23:15Z

HIGH STRONG

Model finds strong 17.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.5 Model Estimate: 17.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

Spencer Arrighetti vs Connelly Early · 2026-05-02T20:10Z

HIGH STRONG

Away traveled 1601mi

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 16.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

Nolan McLean vs Reid Detmers · 2026-05-03T01:38Z

HIGH STRONG

Away traveled 2441mi

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 16.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

Kyle Bradish vs Ryan Weathers · 2026-05-02T17:35Z

HIGH LEAN

Model finds lean 14.8% edge in this matchup

Forecast: New York Yankees -1.5 Model Estimate: 14.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Andrew Painter vs Max Meyer · 2026-05-02T20:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 13.8% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Miami Marlins -1.5 Model Estimate: 13.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners

Seth Lugo vs Emerson Hancock · 2026-05-03T01:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 2.0 points favors the away starter. away traveled 1508mi

Forecast: Seattle Mariners -1.5 Model Estimate: 7.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 10 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
  • Strongest signal: CLE at OAK with 24.7% model edge

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