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Sunday, May 3, 2026

9 games on the slate · 7 high-confidence games

7 High 2 Medium 0 Low

Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics

Parker Messick vs Aaron Civale · 2026-05-03T20:05Z

HIGH STRONG warning 68°F, 9mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (68°f)

Forecast: UNDER 9.5 Model Estimate: 24.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

Clay Holmes vs Jack Kochanowicz · 2026-05-03T20:07Z

HIGH STRONG warning 64°F, 8mph SW (calm), 69% humidity

Away traveled 2441mi

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 24.3% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Merrill Kelly vs Matthew Boyd · 2026-05-03T18:20Z

HIGH STRONG warning 56°F, 15mph S (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.6 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (56°f)

Forecast: UNDER 11.5 Model Estimate: 22.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

Trey Gibson vs Max Fried · 2026-05-03T17:35Z

HIGH STRONG warning 56°F, 16mph NW (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (56°f)

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 17.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners

Kris Bubic vs Luis Castillo · 2026-05-03T20:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Away traveled 1508mi

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 17.3% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Chase Burns vs Braxton Ashcraft · 2026-05-03T17:35Z

HIGH STRONG warning 56°F, 12mph W (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (56°f)

Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Model Estimate: 15.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Jesús Luzardo vs Chris Paddack · 2026-05-03T17:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds strong 15.1% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 15.1% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

Spencer Strider vs Kyle Freeland · 2026-05-03T19:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 74°F, 8mph S (calm)

Model finds lean 7.4% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Colorado Rockies +1.5 Model Estimate: 7.4% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.12

Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres

Anthony Kay vs Griffin Canning · 2026-05-03T20:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 65°F, 8mph W (crosswind), 70% humidity

Weather factor in play (65°f). away traveled 1731mi

Forecast: San Diego Padres -1.5 Model Estimate: 6.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.12

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
  • Strongest signal: CLE at OAK with 24.7% model edge
  • 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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