● 7 High
● 2 Medium
● 0 Low
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
Parker Messick vs Aaron Civale · 2026-05-03T20:05Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 68°F, 9mph SW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (68°f)
Forecast: UNDER 9.5
Model Estimate: 24.7% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
Clay Holmes vs Jack Kochanowicz · 2026-05-03T20:07Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 64°F, 8mph SW (calm), 69% humidity
Away traveled 2441mi
Forecast: UNDER 9.0
Model Estimate: 24.3% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Merrill Kelly vs Matthew Boyd · 2026-05-03T18:20Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 56°F, 15mph S (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.6 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (56°f)
Forecast: UNDER 11.5
Model Estimate: 22.8% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Trey Gibson vs Max Fried · 2026-05-03T17:35Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 56°F, 16mph NW (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (56°f)
Forecast: UNDER 9.0
Model Estimate: 17.6% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
Kris Bubic vs Luis Castillo · 2026-05-03T20:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Away traveled 1508mi
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Estimate: 17.3% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Chase Burns vs Braxton Ashcraft · 2026-05-03T17:35Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 56°F, 12mph W (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (56°f)
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
Model Estimate: 15.9% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Jesús Luzardo vs Chris Paddack · 2026-05-03T17:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds strong 15.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Estimate: 15.1% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Spencer Strider vs Kyle Freeland · 2026-05-03T19:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 74°F, 8mph S (calm)
Model finds lean 7.4% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Colorado Rockies +1.5
Model Estimate: 7.4% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.12
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres
Anthony Kay vs Griffin Canning · 2026-05-03T20:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 65°F, 8mph W (crosswind), 70% humidity
Weather factor in play (65°f). away traveled 1731mi
Forecast: San Diego Padres -1.5
Model Estimate: 6.8% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.12
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
- Strongest signal: CLE at OAK with 24.7% model edge
- 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
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