● 3 High
● 3 Medium
● 0 Low
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Chase Petty vs Edward Cabrera · 2026-05-04T23:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 78°F, 12mph SW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (78°f)
Forecast: UNDER 11.5
Model Estimate: 27.0% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Eric Lauer vs Nick Martinez · 2026-05-04T22:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 3.0 points favors the home starter
Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Model Estimate: 23.7% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Steven Okert · 2026-05-05T00:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Day after night
Forecast: Houston Astros +1.5
Model Estimate: 13.4% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Chad Patrick vs Kyle Leahy · 2026-05-04T23:45Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 82°F, 15mph SW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (82°f)
Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
Model Estimate: 9.7% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.12
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha · 2026-05-04T23:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 84°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (84°f)
Forecast: Kansas City Royals -1.5
Model Estimate: 9.2% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Shane Baz vs Cam Schlittler · 2026-05-04T23:05Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 72°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (72°f)
Forecast: New York Yankees -1.5
Model Estimate: 6.2% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 3 high-edge games across today's 6-game slate
- Strongest signal: CIN at CHC with 27.0% model edge
- 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
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