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Monday, May 4, 2026

6 games on the slate · 3 high-confidence games

3 High 3 Medium 0 Low

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Chase Petty vs Edward Cabrera · 2026-05-04T23:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 78°F, 12mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (78°f)

Forecast: UNDER 11.5 Model Estimate: 27.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

Eric Lauer vs Nick Martinez · 2026-05-04T22:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 3.0 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Model Estimate: 23.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Steven Okert · 2026-05-05T00:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Day after night

Forecast: Houston Astros +1.5 Model Estimate: 13.4% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Chad Patrick vs Kyle Leahy · 2026-05-04T23:45Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 82°F, 15mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (82°f)

Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Model Estimate: 9.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.12

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha · 2026-05-04T23:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 84°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (84°f)

Forecast: Kansas City Royals -1.5 Model Estimate: 9.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

Shane Baz vs Cam Schlittler · 2026-05-04T23:05Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 72°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (72°f)

Forecast: New York Yankees -1.5 Model Estimate: 6.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 3 high-edge games across today's 6-game slate
  • Strongest signal: CIN at CHC with 27.0% model edge
  • 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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