● 7 High
● 4 Medium
● 0 Low
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Burch Smith vs Michael Wacha · 2026-05-09T23:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 79°F, 9mph W (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (79°f)
Forecast: UNDER 9.5
Model Estimate: 29.0% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Zack Littell vs Janson Junk · 2026-05-09T20:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 3.7 points favors the home starter
Forecast: Miami Marlins -1.5
Model Estimate: 21.8% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Clay Holmes vs Merrill Kelly · 2026-05-09T23:15Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 3.3 points favors the away starter. away traveled 2147mi
Forecast: New York Mets -1.5
Model Estimate: 20.9% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
Jack Kochanowicz vs Trey Yesavage · 2026-05-09T19:07Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the home starter. away traveled 2161mi
Forecast: UNDER 8.5
Model Estimate: 20.1% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
Dustin May vs Randy Vásquez · 2026-05-09T23:15Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 68°F, 7mph SW (calm), 76% humidity
Model finds strong 18.3% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Estimate: 18.3% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
Braxton Ashcraft vs Landen Roupp · 2026-05-10T01:05Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 60°F, 18mph W (blowing out), 78% humidity
Weather factor in play (60°f). away traveled 2257mi
Forecast: UNDER 7.5
Model Estimate: 17.4% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle · 2026-05-09T20:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 64°F, 10mph E (blowing in), 66% humidity
Model finds strong 16.9% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 7.5
Model Estimate: 16.9% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee · 2026-05-09T22:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 70°F, 16mph SW (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (70°f)
Forecast: Minnesota Twins -1.5
Model Estimate: 9.8% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers
Edward Cabrera vs Jack Leiter · 2026-05-09T23:05Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 8.0% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Chicago Cubs -1.5
Model Estimate: 8.0% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
Cam Schlittler vs Kyle Harrison · 2026-05-09T23:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 7.6% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
Model Estimate: 7.6% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
Aaron Civale vs Shane Baz · 2026-05-09T20:05Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 78°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (78°f). away traveled 2440mi
Forecast: Baltimore Orioles -1.5
Model Estimate: 6.2% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
- Strongest signal: DET at KC with 29.0% model edge
- 5 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
- Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot
Unlock all 11 forecasts
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