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Saturday, May 9, 2026

11 games on the slate · 7 high-confidence games

7 High 4 Medium 0 Low

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

Burch Smith vs Michael Wacha · 2026-05-09T23:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 79°F, 9mph W (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (79°f)

Forecast: UNDER 9.5 Model Estimate: 29.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins

Zack Littell vs Janson Junk · 2026-05-09T20:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 3.7 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Miami Marlins -1.5 Model Estimate: 21.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Clay Holmes vs Merrill Kelly · 2026-05-09T23:15Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 3.3 points favors the away starter. away traveled 2147mi

Forecast: New York Mets -1.5 Model Estimate: 20.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays

Jack Kochanowicz vs Trey Yesavage · 2026-05-09T19:07Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the home starter. away traveled 2161mi

Forecast: UNDER 8.5 Model Estimate: 20.1% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

Dustin May vs Randy Vásquez · 2026-05-09T23:15Z

HIGH STRONG warning 68°F, 7mph SW (calm), 76% humidity

Model finds strong 18.3% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 18.3% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants

Braxton Ashcraft vs Landen Roupp · 2026-05-10T01:05Z

HIGH STRONG warning 60°F, 18mph W (blowing out), 78% humidity

Weather factor in play (60°f). away traveled 2257mi

Forecast: UNDER 7.5 Model Estimate: 17.4% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle · 2026-05-09T20:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 64°F, 10mph E (blowing in), 66% humidity

Model finds strong 16.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 7.5 Model Estimate: 16.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee · 2026-05-09T22:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 70°F, 16mph SW (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (70°f)

Forecast: Minnesota Twins -1.5 Model Estimate: 9.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers

Edward Cabrera vs Jack Leiter · 2026-05-09T23:05Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 8.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Chicago Cubs -1.5 Model Estimate: 8.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers

Cam Schlittler vs Kyle Harrison · 2026-05-09T23:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 7.6% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 Model Estimate: 7.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles

Aaron Civale vs Shane Baz · 2026-05-09T20:05Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 78°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (78°f). away traveled 2440mi

Forecast: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 Model Estimate: 6.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
  • Strongest signal: DET at KC with 29.0% model edge
  • 5 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
  • Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot

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