● 7 High
● 2 Medium
● 0 Low
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle · 2026-05-10T17:35Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 68°F, 8mph SW (calm), 69% humidity
Model finds strong 24.0% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Estimate: 24.0% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Bryce Elder vs Justin Wrobleski · 2026-05-10T20:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 78°F, 7mph SW (calm)
Away traveled 1932mi
Forecast: UNDER 8.5
Model Estimate: 22.9% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Huascar Brazobán vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 2026-05-10T20:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Away traveled 2147mi
Forecast: UNDER 8.5
Model Estimate: 20.4% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
José Soriano vs Spencer Miles · 2026-05-10T17:37Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Away traveled 2161mi
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Estimate: 18.6% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
Logan Gilbert vs Davis Martin · 2026-05-10T18:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 57°F, 10mph E (blowing in)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.1 points favors the home starter. away traveled 1734mi
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Estimate: 17.2% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
Luis Severino vs Chris Bassitt · 2026-05-10T17:35Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 81°F, 7mph SW (calm)
Away traveled 2440mi
Forecast: UNDER 10.0
Model Estimate: 15.3% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers
Jameson Taillon vs Jacob deGrom · 2026-05-10T18:35Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 2.9 points favors the home starter
Forecast: Texas Rangers -1.5
Model Estimate: 13.9% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Cade Cavalli vs Sandy Alcantara · 2026-05-10T16:15Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 5.5% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Miami Marlins -1.5
Model Estimate: 5.5% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Tomoyuki Sugano vs Cristopher Sánchez · 2026-05-10T17:35Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 79°F, 5mph SW (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.7 points favors the home starter. away traveled 1575mi
Forecast: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Model Estimate: 5.3% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
- Strongest signal: TB at BOS with 24.0% model edge
- 1 game with notable weather impact on projected totals
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