● 7 High
● 4 Medium
● 0 Low
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Jose Quintana vs Mitch Keller · 2026-05-13T22:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 64°F, 14mph W (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (64°f)
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
Model Estimate: 25.0% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
Framber Valdez vs Christian Scott · 2026-05-13T23:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 62°F, 19mph S (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (62°f)
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Estimate: 23.9% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics
Matthew Liberatore vs J.T. Ginn · 2026-05-14T01:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 79°F, 9mph SW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (79°f). away traveled 1730mi
Forecast: UNDER 10.0
Model Estimate: 21.6% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins
Max Meyer vs Simeon Woods Richardson · 2026-05-13T23:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 70°F, 8mph N (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 3.7 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (70°f)
Forecast: Miami Marlins -1.5
Model Estimate: 21.5% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Robbie Ray vs Shohei Ohtani · 2026-05-14T02:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 63°F, 8mph W (calm), 75% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 2.4 points favors the home starter
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Estimate: 20.6% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians
Reid Detmers vs Parker Messick · 2026-05-13T17:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 52°F, 13mph W (crosswind), 79% humidity
Weather factor in play (52°f). away traveled 2033mi
Forecast: Cleveland Guardians -1.5
Model Estimate: 17.7% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers
Ryne Nelson vs Kumar Rocker · 2026-05-14T00:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 13.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Texas Rangers -1.5
Model Estimate: 13.1% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Bryce Miller vs Lance McCullers Jr. · 2026-05-14T00:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Away traveled 1889mi
Forecast: Seattle Mariners -1.5
Model Estimate: 8.3% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.2
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
Shota Imanaga vs JR Ritchie · 2026-05-13T23:15Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 78°F, 8mph NW (crosswind)
Pitcher fip gap of 4.2 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (78°f)
Forecast: Chicago Cubs -1.5
Model Estimate: 7.6% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
Andrew Painter vs Sonny Gray · 2026-05-13T22:45Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 67°F, 15mph S (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (67°f)
Forecast: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Model Estimate: 5.2% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Griffin Jax vs Dylan Cease · 2026-05-13T23:07Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 2.1 points favors the home starter
Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Model Estimate: 5.0% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
- Strongest signal: COL at PIT with 25.0% model edge
- 5 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
- Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot
Unlock all 11 forecasts
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