StatcastEdge Forecast Briefs

← All Briefs

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

11 games on the slate · 7 high-confidence games

7 High 4 Medium 0 Low

Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Jose Quintana vs Mitch Keller · 2026-05-13T22:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 64°F, 14mph W (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (64°f)

Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Model Estimate: 25.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets

Framber Valdez vs Christian Scott · 2026-05-13T23:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 62°F, 19mph S (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (62°f)

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 23.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics

Matthew Liberatore vs J.T. Ginn · 2026-05-14T01:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 79°F, 9mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (79°f). away traveled 1730mi

Forecast: UNDER 10.0 Model Estimate: 21.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins

Max Meyer vs Simeon Woods Richardson · 2026-05-13T23:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 70°F, 8mph N (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 3.7 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (70°f)

Forecast: Miami Marlins -1.5 Model Estimate: 21.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Robbie Ray vs Shohei Ohtani · 2026-05-14T02:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 63°F, 8mph W (calm), 75% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 2.4 points favors the home starter

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 20.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians

Reid Detmers vs Parker Messick · 2026-05-13T17:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 52°F, 13mph W (crosswind), 79% humidity

Weather factor in play (52°f). away traveled 2033mi

Forecast: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Model Estimate: 17.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers

Ryne Nelson vs Kumar Rocker · 2026-05-14T00:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 13.1% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Texas Rangers -1.5 Model Estimate: 13.1% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

Bryce Miller vs Lance McCullers Jr. · 2026-05-14T00:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Away traveled 1889mi

Forecast: Seattle Mariners -1.5 Model Estimate: 8.3% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.2

Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves

Shota Imanaga vs JR Ritchie · 2026-05-13T23:15Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 78°F, 8mph NW (crosswind)

Pitcher fip gap of 4.2 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (78°f)

Forecast: Chicago Cubs -1.5 Model Estimate: 7.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox

Andrew Painter vs Sonny Gray · 2026-05-13T22:45Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 67°F, 15mph S (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (67°f)

Forecast: Boston Red Sox -1.5 Model Estimate: 5.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

Griffin Jax vs Dylan Cease · 2026-05-13T23:07Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 2.1 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Model Estimate: 5.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
  • Strongest signal: COL at PIT with 25.0% model edge
  • 5 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
  • Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot

New forecasts every day at 9 AM ET — bookmark today’s page

Unlock all 11 forecasts

Every forecast, confidence rating, and model context — 7 days free, then $4.99 for the first paid month and $9.99/month afterward.