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Thursday, May 14, 2026

8 games on the slate · 6 high-confidence games

6 High 2 Medium 0 Low

Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets

Keider Montero vs Nolan McLean · 2026-05-14T17:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 63°F, 6mph W (calm)

Model finds strong 28.1% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 7.5 Model Estimate: 28.1% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Landen Roupp vs Emmet Sheehan · 2026-05-15T02:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 64°F, 7mph W (calm), 75% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the away starter

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 22.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics

Michael McGreevy vs Jacob Lopez · 2026-05-14T19:05Z

HIGH STRONG warning 78°F, 4mph NW (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 3.1 points favors the away starter

Forecast: UNDER 9.5 Model Estimate: 17.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Chase Dollander vs Mason Montgomery · 2026-05-14T16:35Z

HIGH STRONG warning 49°F, 11mph NW (blowing out), 72% humidity

Weather factor in play (49°f)

Forecast: UNDER 7.5 Model Estimate: 16.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins

Braxton Garrett vs Zebby Matthews · 2026-05-14T17:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 73°F, 16mph S (blowing in)

Away traveled 1512mi

Forecast: Minnesota Twins -1.5 Model Estimate: 15.3% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves

Ben Brown vs Chris Sale · 2026-05-14T23:15Z

HIGH STRONG warning 71°F, 12mph NW (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (71°f)

Forecast: UNDER 7.5 Model Estimate: 15.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers

Griffin Canning vs Kyle Harrison · 2026-05-14T17:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Away traveled 1733mi

Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Model Estimate: 7.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

Kris Bubic vs Anthony Kay · 2026-05-14T23:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 56°F, 10mph E (blowing in)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.1 points favors the away starter

Forecast: Kansas City Royals -1.5 Model Estimate: 6.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 6 high-edge games across today's 8-game slate
  • Strongest signal: DET at NYM with 28.1% model edge
  • 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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