● 6 High
● 4 Medium
● 0 Low
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics
Tyler Mahle vs Aaron Civale · 2026-05-16T01:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 85°F, 11mph SW (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (85°f)
Forecast: UNDER 10.0
Model Estimate: 31.9% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
Connelly Early vs Spencer Strider · 2026-05-15T23:15Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 79°F, 6mph SW (calm)
Model finds strong 31.6% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Atlanta Braves -1.5
Model Estimate: 31.6% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Aaron Nola vs Braxton Ashcraft · 2026-05-15T22:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 69°F, 6mph W (calm)
Model finds strong 22.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
Model Estimate: 22.1% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
Randy Vásquez vs Emerson Hancock · 2026-05-16T01:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Day after night
Forecast: UNDER 7.0
Model Estimate: 21.7% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Trey Yesavage vs Ty Madden · 2026-05-15T22:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 69°F, 9mph S (blowing in)
Model finds strong 20.5% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Estimate: 20.5% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.4
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Cam Schlittler vs Clay Holmes · 2026-05-15T23:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 65°F, 13mph NW (crosswind)
Weather factor in play (65°f)
Forecast: UNDER 7.0
Model Estimate: 20.1% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
Blake Snell vs Jack Kochanowicz · 2026-05-16T01:38Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 68°F, 8mph SW (blowing out), 70% humidity
Weather factor in play (68°f)
Forecast: Los Angeles Angels +1.5
Model Estimate: 9.8% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Janson Junk vs Jesse Scholtens · 2026-05-15T23:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 9.2% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Model Estimate: 9.2% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Merrill Kelly vs Kyle Freeland · 2026-05-16T00:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 83°F, 9mph E (crosswind)
Weather factor in play (83°f). day after night
Forecast: Colorado Rockies +1.5
Model Estimate: 6.8% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.2
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Edward Cabrera vs Sean Burke · 2026-05-15T23:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 72°F, 12mph S (blowing in)
Model finds lean 6.6% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Chicago White Sox +1.5
Model Estimate: 6.6% confidence gap
Confidence Weight: 0.25
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 6 high-edge games across today's 10-game slate
- Strongest signal: SF at OAK with 31.9% model edge
- 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
- Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot
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