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Friday, May 15, 2026

10 games on the slate · 6 high-confidence games

6 High 4 Medium 0 Low

San Francisco Giants @ Athletics

Tyler Mahle vs Aaron Civale · 2026-05-16T01:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 85°F, 11mph SW (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (85°f)

Forecast: UNDER 10.0 Model Estimate: 31.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves

Connelly Early vs Spencer Strider · 2026-05-15T23:15Z

HIGH STRONG warning 79°F, 6mph SW (calm)

Model finds strong 31.6% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Model Estimate: 31.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Aaron Nola vs Braxton Ashcraft · 2026-05-15T22:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 69°F, 6mph W (calm)

Model finds strong 22.1% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Model Estimate: 22.1% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners

Randy Vásquez vs Emerson Hancock · 2026-05-16T01:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Day after night

Forecast: UNDER 7.0 Model Estimate: 21.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers

Trey Yesavage vs Ty Madden · 2026-05-15T22:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 69°F, 9mph S (blowing in)

Model finds strong 20.5% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Estimate: 20.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

New York Yankees @ New York Mets

Cam Schlittler vs Clay Holmes · 2026-05-15T23:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 65°F, 13mph NW (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (65°f)

Forecast: UNDER 7.0 Model Estimate: 20.1% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels

Blake Snell vs Jack Kochanowicz · 2026-05-16T01:38Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 68°F, 8mph SW (blowing out), 70% humidity

Weather factor in play (68°f)

Forecast: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Model Estimate: 9.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays

Janson Junk vs Jesse Scholtens · 2026-05-15T23:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 9.2% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Model Estimate: 9.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

Merrill Kelly vs Kyle Freeland · 2026-05-16T00:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 83°F, 9mph E (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (83°f). day after night

Forecast: Colorado Rockies +1.5 Model Estimate: 6.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.2

Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox

Edward Cabrera vs Sean Burke · 2026-05-15T23:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 72°F, 12mph S (blowing in)

Model finds lean 6.6% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Chicago White Sox +1.5 Model Estimate: 6.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 6 high-edge games across today's 10-game slate
  • Strongest signal: SF at OAK with 31.9% model edge
  • 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
  • Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot

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