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Saturday, May 16, 2026

9 games on the slate · 7 high-confidence games

7 High 2 Medium 0 Low

San Francisco Giants @ Athletics

Trevor McDonald vs Luis Severino · 2026-05-17T01:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 81°F, 9mph N (blowing in)

Model finds strong 24.8% edge in this matchup

Pick: UNDER 9.5 Model Edge: 24.8% Unit Sizing: 0.5

Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves

Payton Tolle vs Bryce Elder · 2026-05-16T23:15Z

HIGH STRONG warning 84°F, 6mph S (calm)

Model finds strong 20.6% edge in this matchup

Pick: UNDER 8.0 Model Edge: 20.6% Unit Sizing: 0.5

Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers

Mason Fluharty vs Casey Mize · 2026-05-16T17:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning 74°F, 4mph SW (calm), 65% humidity

Model finds strong 17.0% edge in this matchup

Pick: UNDER 8.5 Model Edge: 17.0% Unit Sizing: 0.5

New York Yankees @ New York Mets

Carlos Rodón vs Huascar Brazobán · 2026-05-16T23:15Z

HIGH STRONG warning 70°F, 12mph S (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (70°f)

Pick: UNDER 8.5 Model Edge: 16.8% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays

Sandy Alcantara vs Nick Martinez · 2026-05-16T20:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds strong 16.4% edge in this matchup

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Model Edge: 16.4% Unit Sizing: 0.5

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Jacob deGrom vs Kai-Wei Teng · 2026-05-16T23:10Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds strong 16.2% edge in this matchup

Pick: UNDER 8.0 Model Edge: 16.2% Unit Sizing: 0.5

Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox

Jameson Taillon vs Davis Martin · 2026-05-16T23:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 73°F, 1mph W (calm), 61% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 3.8 points favors the home starter

Pick: Chicago White Sox +1.5 Model Edge: 13.6% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

Eduardo Rodriguez vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 2026-05-16T19:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 77°F, 16mph NW (blowing in)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the away starter

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Model Edge: 8.6% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels

Justin Wrobleski vs José Soriano · 2026-05-17T01:38Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 67°F, 10mph S (blowing out), 70% humidity

Weather factor in play (67°f)

Pick: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Model Edge: 7.2% Unit Sizing: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
  • Strongest signal: SF at OAK with 24.8% model edge
  • 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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