● 7 High
● 2 Medium
● 0 Low
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics
Trevor McDonald vs Luis Severino · 2026-05-17T01:40Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 81°F, 9mph N (blowing in)
Model finds strong 24.8% edge in this matchup
Pick: UNDER 9.5
Model Edge: 24.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.5
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
Payton Tolle vs Bryce Elder · 2026-05-16T23:15Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 84°F, 6mph S (calm)
Model finds strong 20.6% edge in this matchup
Pick: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 20.6%
Unit Sizing: 0.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Mason Fluharty vs Casey Mize · 2026-05-16T17:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 74°F, 4mph SW (calm), 65% humidity
Model finds strong 17.0% edge in this matchup
Pick: UNDER 8.5
Model Edge: 17.0%
Unit Sizing: 0.5
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Carlos Rodón vs Huascar Brazobán · 2026-05-16T23:15Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 70°F, 12mph S (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (70°f)
Pick: UNDER 8.5
Model Edge: 16.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Sandy Alcantara vs Nick Martinez · 2026-05-16T20:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds strong 16.4% edge in this matchup
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Model Edge: 16.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.5
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Jacob deGrom vs Kai-Wei Teng · 2026-05-16T23:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds strong 16.2% edge in this matchup
Pick: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 16.2%
Unit Sizing: 0.5
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Jameson Taillon vs Davis Martin · 2026-05-16T23:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 73°F, 1mph W (calm), 61% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 3.8 points favors the home starter
Pick: Chicago White Sox +1.5
Model Edge: 13.6%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 2026-05-16T19:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 77°F, 16mph NW (blowing in)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the away starter
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Model Edge: 8.6%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
Justin Wrobleski vs José Soriano · 2026-05-17T01:38Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 67°F, 10mph S (blowing out), 70% humidity
Weather factor in play (67°f)
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +1.5
Model Edge: 7.2%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
- Strongest signal: SF at OAK with 24.8% model edge
- 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
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