StatcastEdge Forecast Briefs

← All Briefs

Sunday, May 17, 2026

9 games on the slate · 5 high-confidence games

5 High 4 Medium 0 Low

Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves

Brayan Bello vs Grant Holmes · 2026-05-17T17:35Z

HIGH STRONG warning 86°F, 8mph SE (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (86°f)

Forecast: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Model Estimate: 30.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

San Francisco Giants @ Athletics

Adrian Houser vs Jeffrey Springs · 2026-05-17T20:05Z

HIGH STRONG warning 74°F, 20mph N (blowing in)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the home starter

Forecast: UNDER 9.5 Model Estimate: 23.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians

Brady Singer vs Gavin Williams · 2026-05-17T17:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 81°F, 5mph S (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.6 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Model Estimate: 20.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays

Eury Pérez vs Drew Rasmussen · 2026-05-17T16:15Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds strong 19.2% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Model Estimate: 19.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners

Lucas Giolito vs George Kirby · 2026-05-17T23:20Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds strong 15.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 7.5 Model Estimate: 15.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Zack Wheeler vs Paul Skenes · 2026-05-17T17:35Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 84°F, 9mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (84°f)

Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Model Estimate: 8.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels

Roki Sasaki vs Grayson Rodriguez · 2026-05-17T20:07Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 70°F, 9mph SW (blowing out), 63% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 2.3 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (70°f)

Forecast: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Model Estimate: 8.4% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.2

New York Yankees @ New York Mets

Elmer Rodríguez vs Freddy Peralta · 2026-05-17T17:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 88°F, 7mph SW (calm)

Model finds lean 7.8% edge in this matchup

Forecast: New York Mets +1.5 Model Estimate: 7.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers

Kevin Gausman vs Jack Flaherty · 2026-05-17T17:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 83°F, 8mph S (blowing in)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the away starter

Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Model Estimate: 7.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 5 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
  • Strongest signal: BOS at ATL with 30.5% model edge
  • 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

New forecasts every day at 9 AM ET — bookmark today’s page

Unlock all 9 forecasts

Every forecast, confidence rating, and model context — 7 days free, then $4.99 for the first paid month and $9.99/month afterward.