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Monday, May 18, 2026

10 games on the slate · 8 high-confidence games

8 High 2 Medium 0 Low

Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

Sonny Gray vs Seth Lugo · 2026-05-18T23:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 75°F, 17mph SE (crosswind), 74% humidity

Weather factor in play (75°f)

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 25.4% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

J.T. Ginn vs Walbert Ureña · 2026-05-19T01:38Z

HIGH STRONG warning 68°F, 10mph SW (blowing out), 66% humidity

Weather factor in play (68°f). day after night

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 25.1% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

Trevor Rogers vs Shane McClanahan · 2026-05-18T22:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 2.2 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Model Estimate: 23.0% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

Brandon Sproat vs Shota Imanaga · 2026-05-18T23:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 75°F, 8mph S (blowing out), 86% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 3.2 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (75°f)

Forecast: Chicago Cubs -1.5 Model Estimate: 19.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins

Tatsuya Imai vs Kendry Rojas · 2026-05-18T23:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning 57°F, 6mph N (calm), 91% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 1.9 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Minnesota Twins -1.5 Model Estimate: 19.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

Christian Scott vs Jake Irvin · 2026-05-18T22:45Z

HIGH STRONG warning 96°F, 8mph S (calm)

Model finds strong 18.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 10.0 Model Estimate: 18.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.4

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

Patrick Corbin vs Ryan Weathers · 2026-05-18T23:05Z

HIGH STRONG warning 79°F, 9mph SE (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (79°f)

Forecast: New York Yankees -1.5 Model Estimate: 17.3% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Robbie Ray vs Zac Gallen · 2026-05-19T01:40Z

HIGH STRONG warning Dome — weather neutral

Day after night

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 15.7% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.5

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

Nick Lodolo vs Andrew Painter · 2026-05-18T22:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 95°F, 10mph S (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (95°f)

Forecast: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Model Estimate: 9.8% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.2

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Michael King · 2026-05-19T01:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 64°F, 8mph SW (calm), 70% humidity

Day after night

Forecast: San Diego Padres +1.5 Model Estimate: 9.5% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 8 high-edge games across today's 10-game slate
  • Strongest signal: BOS at KC with 25.4% model edge
  • 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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