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Thursday, May 21, 2026

4 games on the slate · 2 high-confidence games

2 High 2 Medium 0 Low

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Zach Agnos vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 2026-05-22T01:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Day after night

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 17.6% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

Joey Cantillo vs Casey Mize · 2026-05-21T17:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 60°F, 11mph NE (crosswind)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (60°f)

Forecast: UNDER 7.0 Model Estimate: 15.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

Spencer Strider vs Sandy Alcantara · 2026-05-21T22:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 7.2% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Miami Marlins +1.5 Model Estimate: 7.2% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.2

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

David Peterson vs Cade Cavalli · 2026-05-21T20:05Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 63°F, 13mph NE (blowing in), 74% humidity

Model finds lean 5.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Washington Nationals +1.5 Model Estimate: 5.9% confidence gap Confidence Weight: 0.25

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 2 high-edge games across today's 4-game slate
  • Strongest signal: COL at AZ with 17.6% model edge
  • 1 game with notable weather impact on projected totals

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