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Sunday, June 28, 2026

14 games on the slate · 14 high-confidence games

14 High 0 Medium 0 Low

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Brady Singer vs Mitch Keller · 2026-06-28T17:35Z

HIGH LEAN warning 73°F, 3mph N (calm), 91% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 1.9 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays

Merrill Kelly vs Drew Rasmussen · 2026-06-28T17:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 3.1 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers

Hunter Brown vs Jack Flaherty · 2026-06-28T17:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 81°F, 9mph E (crosswind)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (81°f)

Forecast: Detroit Tigers (+118) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

Jesús Luzardo vs Cionel Pérez · 2026-06-28T17:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 81°F, 3mph NE (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.9 points favors the away starter

Forecast: New York Mets (+130) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians

Emerson Hancock vs Gavin Williams · 2026-06-28T17:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 78°F, 8mph N (calm), 70% humidity

Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Cleveland Guardians (-109) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

Aaron Civale vs Sam Aldegheri · 2026-06-28T19:15Z

HIGH LEAN warning 73°F, 8mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (73°f)

Forecast: Los Angeles Angels (+106) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants

Chris Sale vs Robbie Ray · 2026-06-28T20:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning 75°F, 12mph W (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.4 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (75°f)

Forecast: San Francisco Giants (+140) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

Emmet Sheehan vs Michael King · 2026-06-28T20:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 68°F, 7mph SW (calm), 73% humidity

Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: San Diego Padres (+122) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays

Kumar Rocker vs Shane Bieber · 2026-06-28T17:37Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the away starter

Forecast: Texas Rangers +1.5 Model Edge: 19.0% Unit Sizing: 1.68

Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals

Tyler Phillips vs Kyle Leahy · 2026-06-28T18:15Z

HIGH LEAN warning 90°F, 6mph S (calm), 63% humidity

Model finds lean 18.3% edge in this matchup

Forecast: St. Louis Cardinals (-123) Model Edge: 18.3% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins

Ryan Feltner vs Connor Prielipp · 2026-06-28T18:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 70°F, 14mph SE (blowing in), 87% humidity

Model finds lean 18.2% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Minnesota Twins (-145) Model Edge: 18.2% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles

Zack Littell vs Kyle Bradish · 2026-06-28T17:35Z

HIGH LEAN warning 83°F, 5mph SE (calm), 62% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 2.8 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Baltimore Orioles (-185) Model Edge: 17.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

Carlos Rodón vs Sonny Gray · 2026-06-28T23:20Z

HIGH LEAN warning 70°F, 7mph E (calm), 75% humidity

Model finds lean 15.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Boston Red Sox (-113) Model Edge: 15.9% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

Luinder Avila vs Anthony Kay · 2026-06-28T18:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 74°F, 7mph E (calm), 88% humidity

Model finds lean 14.2% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Chicago White Sox -1.5 Model Edge: 14.2% Unit Sizing: 2.1

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 14 high-edge games across today's 14-game slate
  • Strongest signal: CIN at PIT with 20.0% model edge
  • 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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