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Friday, July 3, 2026

10 games on the slate · 10 high-confidence games

10 High 0 Medium 0 Low

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds

Trevor Rogers vs Brady Singer · 2026-07-03T23:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 99°F, 7mph SW (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.9 points favors the away starter

Forecast: Cincinnati Reds (+107) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

Anthony Kay vs Gavin Williams · 2026-07-03T23:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 92°F, 10mph W (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (92°f)

Forecast: Cleveland Guardians (-129) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

Logan Webb vs Ryan Feltner · 2026-07-04T00:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 90°F, 11mph E (crosswind)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.0 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (90°f)

Forecast: Colorado Rockies (+135) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros

Nick Martinez vs Spencer Arrighetti · 2026-07-04T00:15Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Day after night

Forecast: Houston Astros (-105) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Kyle Harrison vs Jose Cabrera · 2026-07-04T01:45Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 2.3 points favors the away starter. day after night

Forecast: Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners

Dylan Cease vs Luis Castillo · 2026-07-04T02:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the away starter. away traveled 2066mi

Forecast: Seattle Mariners (+114) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

Andre Pallante vs David Peterson · 2026-07-03T20:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning 81°F, 5mph E (calm), 94% humidity

Model finds lean 19.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Chicago Cubs (-125) Model Edge: 19.9% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees

Mike Paredes vs Gerrit Cole · 2026-07-03T23:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning 102°F, 9mph NW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (102°f)

Forecast: New York Yankees (-180) Model Edge: 18.0% Unit Sizing: 1.68

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals

Mitch Keller vs Foster Griffin · 2026-07-03T22:45Z

HIGH LEAN warning 104°F, 8mph SW (calm)

Model finds lean 17.4% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Washington Nationals (-137) Model Edge: 17.4% Unit Sizing: 2.1

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Michael King vs Shohei Ohtani · 2026-07-04T02:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 70°F, 7mph W (calm), 61% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Model Edge: 16.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 10 high-edge games across today's 10-game slate
  • Strongest signal: BAL at CIN with 20.0% model edge
  • 1 game with notable weather impact on projected totals

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