● 13 High
● 1 Medium
● 0 Low
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
Jack Flaherty vs Kumar Rocker · 2026-07-04T20:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Texas Rangers (+105)
Model Edge: 20.0%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
Shane Bieber vs Logan Gilbert · 2026-07-04T20:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 2.1 points favors the home starter. away traveled 2066mi
Forecast: Seattle Mariners -1.5
Model Edge: 20.0%
Unit Sizing: 1.68
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Drew Rasmussen vs Hunter Brown · 2026-07-04T23:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Houston Astros (-104)
Model Edge: 20.0%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
Jesús Luzardo vs Michael Wacha · 2026-07-05T00:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 86°F, 11mph W (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (86°f)
Forecast: Kansas City Royals (+133)
Model Edge: 20.0%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Robbie Ray vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 2026-07-05T00:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 88°F, 10mph N (blowing in)
Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Colorado Rockies (+116)
Model Edge: 20.0%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
Miami Marlins @ Athletics
Sandy Alcantara vs Aaron Civale · 2026-07-05T01:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 90°F, 11mph SW (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (90°f)
Forecast: Athletics (+113)
Model Edge: 19.9%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Griffin Canning vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 2026-07-05T02:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 71°F, 7mph W (calm), 61% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 2.5 points favors the home starter
Forecast: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Model Edge: 19.9%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Sean Burke vs Parker Messick · 2026-07-04T23:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 82°F, 6mph NW (calm), 66% humidity
Model finds lean 19.8% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Cleveland Guardians (-138)
Model Edge: 19.8%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
Braxton Ashcraft vs Zack Littell · 2026-07-04T15:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 96°F, 5mph NW (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 3.9 points favors the away starter. day after night
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
Model Edge: 19.6%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Woodruff vs Merrill Kelly · 2026-07-05T01:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 3.4 points favors the away starter
Forecast: Arizona Diamondbacks (+132)
Model Edge: 18.3%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Young vs Hunter Greene · 2026-07-04T23:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 94°F, 5mph W (calm)
Model finds lean 16.2% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Cincinnati Reds (-117)
Model Edge: 16.2%
Unit Sizing: 1.68
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Kyle Leahy vs Shota Imanaga · 2026-07-05T00:08Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 71°F, 8mph NW (calm), 97% humidity
Day after night
Forecast: Chicago Cubs (-151)
Model Edge: 14.3%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
Zebby Matthews vs Brendan Beck · 2026-07-04T17:35Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 96°F, 10mph W (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (96°f)
Forecast: New York Yankees (-153)
Model Edge: 13.7%
Unit Sizing: 1.68
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Sonny Gray vs Sam Aldegheri · 2026-07-05T01:38Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 77°F, 8mph SW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (77°f). away traveled 2578mi
Forecast: Los Angeles Angels (+144)
Model Edge: 8.2%
Unit Sizing: 2.1
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 13 high-edge games across today's 14-game slate
- Strongest signal: DET at TEX with 20.0% model edge
- 5 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
Unlock all 14 forecasts
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