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Sunday, July 5, 2026

14 games on the slate · 14 high-confidence games

14 High 0 Medium 0 Low

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals

Bubba Chandler vs Cade Cavalli · 2026-07-05T17:00Z

HIGH LEAN warning 94°F, 4mph SW (calm)

Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Washington Nationals (-125) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds

Kyle Bradish vs Nick Lodolo · 2026-07-05T17:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning 84°F, 4mph NW (calm), 73% humidity

Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Cincinnati Reds (-101) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees

Joe Ryan vs Ryan Weathers · 2026-07-05T17:35Z

HIGH LEAN warning 88°F, 4mph SW (calm)

Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: New York Yankees (-125) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals

Aaron Nola vs Luinder Avila · 2026-07-05T19:00Z

HIGH LEAN warning 89°F, 6mph N (calm)

Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Kansas City Royals (+122) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros

Griffin Jax vs Peter Lambert · 2026-07-05T19:30Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Houston Astros (+111) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

Tyler Mahle vs Tanner Gordon · 2026-07-05T20:00Z

HIGH LEAN warning 95°F, 8mph NE (calm)

Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Colorado Rockies (+106) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Brandon Sproat vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 2026-07-05T20:00Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 20.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Arizona Diamondbacks (+108) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Miami Marlins @ Athletics

Eury Pérez vs Gage Jump · 2026-07-05T20:30Z

HIGH LEAN warning 76°F, 10mph S (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.2 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (76°f)

Forecast: Athletics (-117) Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

JP Sears vs Emmet Sheehan · 2026-07-05T23:20Z

HIGH LEAN warning 78°F, 10mph W (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (78°f)

Forecast: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Model Edge: 20.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners

Trey Yesavage vs Emerson Hancock · 2026-07-05T21:00Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 18.8% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Seattle Mariners (-123) Model Edge: 18.8% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

Chris Murphy vs Tanner Bibee · 2026-07-05T18:00Z

HIGH LEAN warning 83°F, 8mph N (calm), 68% humidity

Model finds lean 18.6% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Cleveland Guardians (-136) Model Edge: 18.6% Unit Sizing: 2.1

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

Matthew Liberatore vs Javier Assad · 2026-07-05T18:30Z

HIGH LEAN warning 69°F, 5mph N (calm), 100% humidity

Model finds lean 18.5% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Chicago Cubs (-146) Model Edge: 18.5% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

Ranger Suarez vs Ryan Johnson · 2026-07-06T01:30Z

HIGH LEAN warning 76°F, 9mph SW (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 3.8 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (76°f)

Forecast: Los Angeles Angels (+140) Model Edge: 18.4% Unit Sizing: 2.1

Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers

Casey Mize vs Kumar Rocker · 2026-07-05T19:30Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 10.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Texas Rangers (+105) Model Edge: 10.0% Unit Sizing: 2.1

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 14 high-edge games across today's 14-game slate
  • Strongest signal: PIT at WSH with 20.0% model edge
  • 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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