● 11 High
● 2 Medium
● 0 Low
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Shane Baz vs Payton Tolle · 2026-07-20T23:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 84°F, 6mph W (calm)
Model finds lean 18.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Model Edge: 18.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Emmet Sheehan vs Cristopher Sánchez · 2026-07-20T23:00Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 82°F, 5mph S (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the home starter. away traveled 2388mi
Forecast: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Model Edge: 16.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Freddy Peralta vs Jacob Misiorowski · 2026-07-20T23:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 2.2 points favors the home starter
Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
Model Edge: 16.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
Jack Flaherty vs Jameson Taillon · 2026-07-21T00:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 86°F, 18mph SW (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 3.0 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (86°f)
Forecast: Detroit Tigers -1.5
Model Edge: 15.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers
Erick Fedde vs Jacob deGrom · 2026-07-21T00:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the home starter. day after night
Forecast: OVER 7.5
Model Edge: 14.6%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Jeffrey Springs vs Mitch Bratt · 2026-07-21T01:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Day after night
Forecast: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Model Edge: 13.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
Andrew Alvarez vs Kyle Freeland · 2026-07-21T00:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 99°F, 9mph E (crosswind)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.6 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (99°f)
Forecast: Washington Nationals -1.5
Model Edge: 12.7%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee · 2026-07-20T22:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 80°F, 7mph NW (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.3 points favors the away starter
Forecast: Minnesota Twins -1.5
Model Edge: 12.3%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros
Janson Junk vs Ronel Blanco · 2026-07-21T00:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Day after night
Forecast: Miami Marlins (+117)
Model Edge: 10.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals
Trevor McDonald vs Michael Wacha · 2026-07-20T23:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 101°F, 7mph SW (calm)
Away traveled 1507mi
Forecast: Kansas City Royals (-113)
Model Edge: 10.3%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
Andrew Abbott vs George Kirby · 2026-07-21T01:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the home starter. away traveled 1966mi
Forecast: Seattle Mariners -1.5
Model Edge: 10.0%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
Braxton Ashcraft vs Ryan Weathers · 2026-07-20T23:05Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 80°F, 10mph S (crosswind)
Weather factor in play (80°f)
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates (+106)
Model Edge: 6.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Nick Martinez vs Dylan Cease · 2026-07-20T23:07Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the home starter
Forecast: UNDER 7.5
Model Edge: 6.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 11 high-edge games across today's 13-game slate
- Strongest signal: BAL at BOS with 18.1% model edge
- 1 game with notable weather impact on projected totals
- Model leans underdog in 2 high-edge spots
Unlock all 13 forecasts
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