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Tuesday, July 21, 2026

9 games on the slate · 6 high-confidence games

6 High 3 Medium 0 Low

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

Walker Buehler vs Reynaldo López · 2026-07-21T23:15Z

HIGH LEAN warning 86°F, 11mph S (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (86°f). away traveled 1887mi

Forecast: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Model Edge: 19.2% Unit Sizing: 0.25

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

Zac Thornton vs Brandon Sproat · 2026-07-21T23:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 1.9 points favors the away starter

Forecast: New York Mets (+132) Model Edge: 16.1% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs

Framber Valdez vs David Peterson · 2026-07-22T00:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning 73°F, 15mph N (blowing in), 80% humidity

Model finds lean 14.4% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Detroit Tigers -1.5 Model Edge: 14.4% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

Kendry Rojas vs Parker Messick · 2026-07-21T22:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 82°F, 10mph W (crosswind), 63% humidity

Weather factor in play (82°f)

Forecast: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Model Edge: 13.6% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers

Noah Schultz vs Kumar Rocker · 2026-07-22T00:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 13.6% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Texas Rangers -1.5 Model Edge: 13.6% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Jack Perkins vs Kohl Drake · 2026-07-22T01:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 12.1% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Model Edge: 12.1% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies

Miles Mikolas vs Michael Lorenzen · 2026-07-22T00:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 95°F, 14mph SE (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (95°f)

Forecast: Washington Nationals (-108) Model Edge: 9.4% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees

Bubba Chandler vs Will Warren · 2026-07-21T23:05Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 84°F, 11mph S (crosswind), 70% humidity

Weather factor in play (84°f)

Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates (+136) Model Edge: 9.1% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros

Tyler Phillips vs Tatsuya Imai · 2026-07-22T00:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 7.2% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Edge: 7.2% Unit Sizing: 0.15

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 6 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
  • Strongest signal: SD at ATL with 19.2% model edge
  • 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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