● 6 High
● 3 Medium
● 0 Low
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Walker Buehler vs Reynaldo López · 2026-07-21T23:15Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 86°F, 11mph S (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (86°f). away traveled 1887mi
Forecast: Atlanta Braves -1.5
Model Edge: 19.2%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Zac Thornton vs Brandon Sproat · 2026-07-21T23:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 1.9 points favors the away starter
Forecast: New York Mets (+132)
Model Edge: 16.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
Framber Valdez vs David Peterson · 2026-07-22T00:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 73°F, 15mph N (blowing in), 80% humidity
Model finds lean 14.4% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Detroit Tigers -1.5
Model Edge: 14.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Kendry Rojas vs Parker Messick · 2026-07-21T22:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 82°F, 10mph W (crosswind), 63% humidity
Weather factor in play (82°f)
Forecast: Cleveland Guardians -1.5
Model Edge: 13.6%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers
Noah Schultz vs Kumar Rocker · 2026-07-22T00:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 13.6% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Texas Rangers -1.5
Model Edge: 13.6%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Jack Perkins vs Kohl Drake · 2026-07-22T01:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 12.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Model Edge: 12.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
Miles Mikolas vs Michael Lorenzen · 2026-07-22T00:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 95°F, 14mph SE (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (95°f)
Forecast: Washington Nationals (-108)
Model Edge: 9.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
Bubba Chandler vs Will Warren · 2026-07-21T23:05Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 84°F, 11mph S (crosswind), 70% humidity
Weather factor in play (84°f)
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates (+136)
Model Edge: 9.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros
Tyler Phillips vs Tatsuya Imai · 2026-07-22T00:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 7.2% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 9.0
Model Edge: 7.2%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 6 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
- Strongest signal: SD at ATL with 19.2% model edge
- 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
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