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Wednesday, July 22, 2026

12 games on the slate · 9 high-confidence games

9 High 3 Medium 0 Low

St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels

Hunter Dobbins vs Reid Detmers · 2026-07-22T20:07Z

HIGH LEAN warning 87°F, 9mph W (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (87°f). away traveled 1572mi

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Edge: 19.1% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees

Bubba Chandler vs Max Fried · 2026-07-22T23:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning 88°F, 13mph W (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (88°f)

Forecast: New York Yankees -1.5 Model Edge: 17.6% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers

Anthony Kay vs Tyler Alexander · 2026-07-23T00:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Texas Rangers +1.5 Model Edge: 17.0% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners

Brady Singer vs Emerson Hancock · 2026-07-22T19:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 2.0 points favors the home starter. away traveled 1966mi

Forecast: Seattle Mariners -1.5 Model Edge: 16.9% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies

Eric Lauer vs Aaron Nola · 2026-07-22T22:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 80°F, 7mph W (calm), 64% humidity

Away traveled 2388mi

Forecast: OVER 9.5 Model Edge: 16.6% Unit Sizing: 0.15

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

Michael King vs Martín Pérez · 2026-07-22T23:15Z

HIGH LEAN warning 88°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (88°f). away traveled 1887mi

Forecast: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Model Edge: 16.3% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Gage Jump vs Merrill Kelly · 2026-07-22T19:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 3.1 points favors the away starter

Forecast: Athletics (+105) Model Edge: 15.4% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros

Sandy Alcantara vs Peter Lambert · 2026-07-23T00:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 14.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Houston Astros -1.5 Model Edge: 14.0% Unit Sizing: 0.25

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

Christian Scott vs Logan Henderson · 2026-07-22T18:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 10.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Model Edge: 10.0% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs

Keider Montero vs Colin Rea · 2026-07-23T00:00Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 70°F, 9mph NE (blowing in)

Model finds lean 9.1% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Detroit Tigers -1.5 Model Edge: 9.1% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

Griffin Jax vs Braydon Fisher · 2026-07-22T23:07Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 6.4% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Edge: 6.4% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

Bailey Ober vs Slade Cecconi · 2026-07-22T22:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 71°F, 7mph NW (calm)

Model finds lean 5.1% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Minnesota Twins (+109) Model Edge: 5.1% Unit Sizing: 0.2

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 9 high-edge games across today's 12-game slate
  • Strongest signal: STL at LAA with 19.1% model edge
  • 4 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
  • Model leans underdog in 2 high-edge spots

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