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Tuesday, July 28, 2026

9 games on the slate · 4 high-confidence games

4 High 5 Medium 0 Low

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres

Michael Lorenzen vs Michael King · 2026-07-29T01:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 74°F, 5mph W (calm), 78% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the home starter

Forecast: San Diego Padres -1.5 Model Edge: 14.5% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Boston Red Sox @ Athletics

Jake Bennett vs Gage Jump · 2026-07-29T01:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 94°F, 11mph SW (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (94°f). away traveled 2680mi

Forecast: UNDER 9.5 Model Edge: 13.8% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

Cal Quantrill vs Griffin Jax · 2026-07-28T22:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 13.5% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Model Edge: 13.5% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

Seth Lugo vs Taj Bradley · 2026-07-28T23:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 92°F, 6mph NW (calm)

Model finds lean 12.8% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Minnesota Twins -1.5 Model Edge: 12.8% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants

Logan Henderson vs Landen Roupp · 2026-07-29T01:45Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 66°F, 20mph W (blowing out), 72% humidity

Weather factor in play (66°f). away traveled 1833mi

Forecast: San Francisco Giants (+133) Model Edge: 8.5% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

Peter Lambert vs Reid Detmers · 2026-07-29T01:38Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 79°F, 7mph SW (calm), 63% humidity

Model finds lean 8.0% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Houston Astros -1.5 Model Edge: 8.0% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

Chris Sale vs Christian Scott · 2026-07-28T23:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 76°F, 14mph SE (blowing out), 82% humidity

Weather factor in play (76°f)

Forecast: New York Mets (+144) Model Edge: 6.8% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Brandon Pfaadt vs Bubba Chandler · 2026-07-28T22:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 79°F, 9mph NW (crosswind), 64% humidity

Weather factor in play (79°f). away traveled 1824mi

Forecast: UNDER 9.0 Model Edge: 6.6% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

Colin Rea vs Michael McGreevy · 2026-07-28T23:45Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 94°F, 6mph NW (calm)

Model finds lean 5.1% edge in this matchup

Forecast: St. Louis Cardinals (-102) Model Edge: 5.1% Unit Sizing: 0.2

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 4 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
  • Strongest signal: COL at SD with 14.5% model edge
  • 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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