● 4 High
● 5 Medium
● 0 Low
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
Michael Lorenzen vs Michael King · 2026-07-29T01:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 74°F, 5mph W (calm), 78% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the home starter
Forecast: San Diego Padres -1.5
Model Edge: 14.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
Jake Bennett vs Gage Jump · 2026-07-29T01:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 94°F, 11mph SW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (94°f). away traveled 2680mi
Forecast: UNDER 9.5
Model Edge: 13.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Cal Quantrill vs Griffin Jax · 2026-07-28T22:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 13.5% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Model Edge: 13.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
Seth Lugo vs Taj Bradley · 2026-07-28T23:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 92°F, 6mph NW (calm)
Model finds lean 12.8% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Minnesota Twins -1.5
Model Edge: 12.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
Logan Henderson vs Landen Roupp · 2026-07-29T01:45Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 66°F, 20mph W (blowing out), 72% humidity
Weather factor in play (66°f). away traveled 1833mi
Forecast: San Francisco Giants (+133)
Model Edge: 8.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Peter Lambert vs Reid Detmers · 2026-07-29T01:38Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 79°F, 7mph SW (calm), 63% humidity
Model finds lean 8.0% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Houston Astros -1.5
Model Edge: 8.0%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Chris Sale vs Christian Scott · 2026-07-28T23:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 76°F, 14mph SE (blowing out), 82% humidity
Weather factor in play (76°f)
Forecast: New York Mets (+144)
Model Edge: 6.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Brandon Pfaadt vs Bubba Chandler · 2026-07-28T22:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 79°F, 9mph NW (crosswind), 64% humidity
Weather factor in play (79°f). away traveled 1824mi
Forecast: UNDER 9.0
Model Edge: 6.6%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Colin Rea vs Michael McGreevy · 2026-07-28T23:45Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 94°F, 6mph NW (calm)
Model finds lean 5.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: St. Louis Cardinals (-102)
Model Edge: 5.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 4 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
- Strongest signal: COL at SD with 14.5% model edge
- 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
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