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Thursday, July 30, 2026

7 games on the slate · 4 high-confidence games

4 High 3 Medium 0 Low

Boston Red Sox @ Athletics

Sonny Gray vs Mason Barnett · 2026-07-31T01:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 94°F, 11mph SW (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.0 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (94°f)

Forecast: UNDER 10.5 Model Edge: 13.1% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

Noah Cameron vs Bailey Ober · 2026-07-30T17:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 85°F, 10mph S (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (85°f)

Forecast: Minnesota Twins -1.5 Model Edge: 12.8% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

Eury Pérez vs Nolan McLean · 2026-07-30T23:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 72°F, 4mph N (calm), 83% humidity

Model finds lean 11.8% edge in this matchup

Forecast: New York Mets -1.5 Model Edge: 11.8% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Bryan Woo vs Roki Sasaki · 2026-07-31T02:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 72°F, 7mph SW (calm), 79% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 2.0 points favors the away starter

Forecast: Seattle Mariners (+140) Model Edge: 11.2% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

Jake Irvin vs Grant Holmes · 2026-07-30T23:00Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 88°F, 8mph NW (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (88°f)

Forecast: Washington Nationals (+129) Model Edge: 9.6% Unit Sizing: 0.2

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

Robbie Ray vs JP Sears · 2026-07-31T01:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 75°F, 6mph W (calm), 79% humidity

Day after night

Forecast: San Diego Padres -1.5 Model Edge: 7.6% Unit Sizing: 0.25

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

Ryan Weathers vs Sean Burke · 2026-07-30T18:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 77°F, 7mph E (calm), 72% humidity

Model finds lean 5.7% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Chicago White Sox (-110) Model Edge: 5.7% Unit Sizing: 0.2

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 4 high-edge games across today's 7-game slate
  • Strongest signal: BOS at OAK with 13.1% model edge
  • 1 game with notable weather impact on projected totals
  • Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot

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