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Saturday, August 1, 2026

11 games on the slate · 10 high-confidence games

10 High 1 Medium 0 Low

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

Braxton Ashcraft vs Andrew Abbott · 2026-08-01T22:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 80°F, 12mph SE (blowing in), 74% humidity

Model finds lean 18.7% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Model Edge: 18.7% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

Tyler Phillips vs Zac Thornton · 2026-08-01T20:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 86°F, 13mph S (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (86°f)

Forecast: New York Mets -1.5 Model Edge: 16.4% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners

Connor Prielipp vs Logan Gilbert · 2026-08-01T20:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 15.5% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Seattle Mariners -1.5 Model Edge: 15.5% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Payton Tolle vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 2026-08-02T01:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 82°F, 7mph W (calm)

Away traveled 2588mi

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Edge: 15.5% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

Kohl Drake vs Parker Messick · 2026-08-01T23:15Z

HIGH LEAN warning 88°F, 6mph SE (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the home starter. away traveled 1745mi

Forecast: UNDER 8.5 Model Edge: 15.0% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Detroit Tigers @ Athletics

Framber Valdez vs Jack Perkins · 2026-08-02T01:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 102°F, 7mph SW (calm)

Away traveled 2076mi

Forecast: UNDER 10.5 Model Edge: 14.5% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

Miles Mikolas vs Reynaldo López · 2026-08-01T23:15Z

HIGH LEAN warning 86°F, 9mph S (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (86°f)

Forecast: Washington Nationals (+175) Model Edge: 12.7% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

Jordan Hicks vs Drew Rasmussen · 2026-08-01T20:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 12.3% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Edge: 12.3% Unit Sizing: 0.15

St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays

Quinn Mathews vs Kevin Gausman · 2026-08-01T19:07Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 10.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Model Edge: 10.9% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Jacob deGrom vs Ronel Blanco · 2026-08-01T23:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 2.5 points favors the away starter

Forecast: Texas Rangers -1.5 Model Edge: 10.0% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

Cristopher Sánchez vs Shane Baz · 2026-08-01T23:05Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 86°F, 11mph SE (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (86°f)

Forecast: Baltimore Orioles (+135) Model Edge: 6.9% Unit Sizing: 0.2

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 10 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
  • Strongest signal: PIT at CIN with 18.7% model edge
  • 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
  • Model leans underdog in 3 high-edge spots

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