● 10 High
● 1 Medium
● 0 Low
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Braxton Ashcraft vs Andrew Abbott · 2026-08-01T22:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 80°F, 12mph SE (blowing in), 74% humidity
Model finds lean 18.7% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
Model Edge: 18.7%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Tyler Phillips vs Zac Thornton · 2026-08-01T20:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 86°F, 13mph S (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (86°f)
Forecast: New York Mets -1.5
Model Edge: 16.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
Connor Prielipp vs Logan Gilbert · 2026-08-01T20:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 15.5% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Seattle Mariners -1.5
Model Edge: 15.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Payton Tolle vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 2026-08-02T01:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 82°F, 7mph W (calm)
Away traveled 2588mi
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 15.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians
Kohl Drake vs Parker Messick · 2026-08-01T23:15Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 88°F, 6mph SE (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the home starter. away traveled 1745mi
Forecast: UNDER 8.5
Model Edge: 15.0%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics
Framber Valdez vs Jack Perkins · 2026-08-02T01:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 102°F, 7mph SW (calm)
Away traveled 2076mi
Forecast: UNDER 10.5
Model Edge: 14.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Miles Mikolas vs Reynaldo López · 2026-08-01T23:15Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 86°F, 9mph S (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (86°f)
Forecast: Washington Nationals (+175)
Model Edge: 12.7%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Jordan Hicks vs Drew Rasmussen · 2026-08-01T20:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 12.3% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 12.3%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Quinn Mathews vs Kevin Gausman · 2026-08-01T19:07Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 10.9% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Model Edge: 10.9%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Jacob deGrom vs Ronel Blanco · 2026-08-01T23:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 2.5 points favors the away starter
Forecast: Texas Rangers -1.5
Model Edge: 10.0%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles
Cristopher Sánchez vs Shane Baz · 2026-08-01T23:05Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 86°F, 11mph SE (crosswind)
Weather factor in play (86°f)
Forecast: Baltimore Orioles (+135)
Model Edge: 6.9%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 10 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
- Strongest signal: PIT at CIN with 18.7% model edge
- 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
- Model leans underdog in 3 high-edge spots
Unlock all 11 forecasts
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