● 3 High
● 4 Medium
● 0 Low
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers
Logan Webb vs Cal Quantrill · 2026-08-04T00:00Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Day after night
Forecast: San Francisco Giants -1.5
Model Edge: 13.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros
Shane Bieber vs Cristian Javier · 2026-08-04T00:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 1.5 points favors the home starter. day after night
Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays (+120)
Model Edge: 13.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
Bubba Chandler vs Brandon Sproat · 2026-08-03T23:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 13.0% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates (+130)
Model Edge: 13.0%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees
Michael McGreevy vs Cam Schlittler · 2026-08-03T23:05Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 75°F, 9mph NW (blowing out), 75% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (75°f)
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 9.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Justin Wrobleski vs Matthew Boyd · 2026-08-04T00:05Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 70°F, 6mph E (calm), 84% humidity
Away traveled 1741mi
Forecast: Chicago Cubs (+110)
Model Edge: 7.2%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies
Ian Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen · 2026-08-04T00:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 94°F, 12mph SE (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (94°f). away traveled 1520mi
Forecast: OVER 11.5
Model Edge: 6.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Michael King vs Brandon Pfaadt · 2026-08-04T01:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Day after night
Forecast: UNDER 8.5
Model Edge: 5.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 3 high-edge games across today's 7-game slate
- Strongest signal: SF at TEX with 13.8% model edge
- 2 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
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