● 8 High
● 1 Medium
● 0 Low
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Janson Junk vs Martín Pérez · 2026-08-06T23:15Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 82°F, 2mph SE (calm), 70% humidity
Model finds lean 18.3% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Atlanta Braves -1.5
Model Edge: 18.3%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
Luis Castillo vs Ranger Suarez · 2026-08-06T23:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 88°F, 8mph SW (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.0 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (88°f)
Forecast: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Model Edge: 15.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
Bailey Ober vs Michael Wacha · 2026-08-06T23:30Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 84°F, 4mph N (calm), 72% humidity
Model finds lean 15.4% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 9.0
Model Edge: 15.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May · 2026-08-06T18:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 15.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
Model Edge: 15.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs
Dylan Cease vs David Peterson · 2026-08-06T18:20Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 74°F, 7mph NE (calm), 92% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 2.2 points favors the away starter
Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Model Edge: 14.9%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Miles Mikolas vs Cristopher Sánchez · 2026-08-06T22:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 86°F, 9mph S (blowing out), 66% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 3.7 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (86°f)
Forecast: Washington Nationals (+277)
Model Edge: 11.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
Nolan McLean vs Foster Griffin · 2026-08-06T17:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 87°F, 6mph W (calm)
Model finds lean 10.7% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 7.5
Model Edge: 10.7%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
Framber Valdez vs Bryce Miller · 2026-08-06T20:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Away traveled 1932mi
Forecast: UNDER 7.5
Model Edge: 10.7%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Walker Buehler vs Kohl Drake · 2026-08-07T01:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 6.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: OVER 9.0
Model Edge: 6.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 8 high-edge games across today's 9-game slate
- Strongest signal: MIA at ATL with 18.3% model edge
- 2 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
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