● 5 High
● 5 Medium
● 0 Low
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Dustin May vs Robbie Ray · 2026-08-12T20:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 81°F, 8mph W (calm), 67% humidity
Model finds lean 16.8% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 16.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
Drew Rasmussen vs Jack Perkins · 2026-08-12T19:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 84°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.8 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (84°f)
Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Model Edge: 15.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Zac Thornton vs Tyler Mahle · 2026-08-12T23:15Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 90°F, 9mph W (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (90°f)
Forecast: New York Mets (+153)
Model Edge: 14.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Leahy · 2026-08-12T18:15Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 98°F, 10mph NW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (98°f)
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 13.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Ryan Feltner vs Merrill Kelly · 2026-08-12T19:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 13.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Colorado Rockies (+175)
Model Edge: 13.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
Shane Baz vs Zebby Matthews · 2026-08-12T17:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 85°F, 5mph NE (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.9 points favors the away starter
Forecast: Baltimore Orioles (+105)
Model Edge: 8.3%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
Bryce Miller vs Will Warren · 2026-08-12T23:00Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 86°F, 2mph NW (calm)
Away traveled 2401mi
Forecast: Seattle Mariners (+124)
Model Edge: 6.9%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Ranger Suarez vs José Soriano · 2026-08-12T23:07Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 6.8% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 7.0
Model Edge: 6.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Cal Quantrill vs George Klassen · 2026-08-13T02:00Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 73°F, 8mph SW (calm), 76% humidity
Model finds lean 6.4% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 9.5
Model Edge: 6.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
Foster Griffin vs Framber Valdez · 2026-08-12T22:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 76°F, 8mph SW (calm), 82% humidity
Model finds lean 6.3% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 6.3%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 5 high-edge games across today's 10-game slate
- Strongest signal: MIL at SD with 16.8% model edge
- 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
- Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot
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