● 5 High
● 6 Medium
● 0 Low
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Michael Soroka vs Bryce Elder · 2026-08-16T17:35Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 93°F, 8mph NW (crosswind)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (93°f)
Forecast: Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
Model Edge: 18.0%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
Cody Bradford vs Jacob Lopez · 2026-08-16T20:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 89°F, 3mph NW (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the away starter
Forecast: UNDER 10.5
Model Edge: 14.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
Noah Cameron vs Ryan Johnson · 2026-08-16T20:07Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 85°F, 8mph W (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 3.0 points favors the away starter
Forecast: Kansas City Royals (-113)
Model Edge: 13.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Logan Henderson vs Tarik Skubal · 2026-08-16T20:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 85°F, 8mph SW (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (85°f). away traveled 1738mi
Forecast: UNDER 7.5
Model Edge: 12.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Hunter Dobbins vs Edward Cabrera · 2026-08-16T19:00Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 84°F, 6mph W (calm), 72% humidity
Model finds lean 11.9% edge in this matchup
Forecast: St. Louis Cardinals (+153)
Model Edge: 11.9%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Sean Burke vs Drew Anderson · 2026-08-16T17:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 81°F, 10mph SW (crosswind), 78% humidity
Weather factor in play (81°f)
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 9.5%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Eury Pérez vs Nick Lodolo · 2026-08-16T17:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 86°F, 8mph W (calm), 68% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the away starter
Forecast: Miami Marlins (-118)
Model Edge: 9.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Gabriel Hughes vs Blade Tidwell · 2026-08-16T20:05Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 68°F, 8mph W (calm), 77% humidity
Model finds lean 8.7% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 8.7%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan Weathers vs Dylan Cease · 2026-08-16T17:37Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 8.0% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 7.0
Model Edge: 8.0%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
Casey Mize vs Tanner Bibee · 2026-08-16T17:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 81°F, 4mph W (calm), 82% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the away starter. away traveled 2030mi
Forecast: UNDER 8.5
Model Edge: 7.8%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Bryan Woo vs Hunter Brown · 2026-08-16T23:20Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 5.0% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Seattle Mariners (+129)
Model Edge: 5.0%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 5 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
- Strongest signal: AZ at ATL with 18.0% model edge
- 1 game with notable weather impact on projected totals
- Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot
Unlock all 11 forecasts
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