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Wednesday, August 19, 2026

11 games on the slate · 9 high-confidence games

9 High 2 Medium 0 Low

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

Max Scherzer vs Drew Rasmussen · 2026-08-19T22:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Pitcher fip gap of 3.9 points favors the home starter

Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Model Edge: 18.9% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros

Walbert Ureña vs Ethan Pecko · 2026-08-20T00:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 18.1% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Los Angeles Angels (+154) Model Edge: 18.1% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs

Sean Newcomb vs Clay Holmes · 2026-08-19T18:20Z

HIGH LEAN warning 73°F, 5mph NE (calm), 85% humidity

Model finds lean 15.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Edge: 15.9% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers

Cade Cavalli vs Kumar Rocker · 2026-08-20T00:05Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 13.9% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Washington Nationals (+130) Model Edge: 13.9% Unit Sizing: 0.2

San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians

Matt Wilkinson vs Parker Messick · 2026-08-19T22:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 78°F, 4mph NW (calm)

Away traveled 2160mi

Forecast: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Model Edge: 13.4% Unit Sizing: 0.25

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

Michael King vs Robert Stock · 2026-08-19T17:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 87°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.3 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (87°f)

Forecast: San Diego Padres (-134) Model Edge: 12.7% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Jackson Jobe vs Paul Skenes · 2026-08-19T16:35Z

HIGH LEAN warning 78°F, 8mph SW (blowing out), 64% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 2.4 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (78°f)

Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Model Edge: 12.3% Unit Sizing: 0.25

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

Matthew Liberatore vs Chase Burns · 2026-08-19T22:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 83°F, 9mph SW (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (83°f)

Forecast: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 Model Edge: 10.7% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

Roki Sasaki vs Kyle Freeland · 2026-08-20T00:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 90°F, 8mph E (crosswind)

Weather factor in play (90°f)

Forecast: Colorado Rockies (+203) Model Edge: 10.1% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox

Brandon Pfaadt vs Payton Tolle · 2026-08-19T20:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 88°F, 12mph W (blowing out)

Weather factor in play (88°f)

Forecast: UNDER 8.0 Model Edge: 7.1% Unit Sizing: 0.15

Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers

Logan Gilbert vs Dustin May · 2026-08-19T23:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Away traveled 1684mi

Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers (-118) Model Edge: 5.7% Unit Sizing: 0.2

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 9 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
  • Strongest signal: TOR at TB with 18.9% model edge
  • 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
  • Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot

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