● 9 High
● 2 Medium
● 0 Low
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Max Scherzer vs Drew Rasmussen · 2026-08-19T22:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Pitcher fip gap of 3.9 points favors the home starter
Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Model Edge: 18.9%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
Walbert Ureña vs Ethan Pecko · 2026-08-20T00:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 18.1% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Los Angeles Angels (+154)
Model Edge: 18.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Sean Newcomb vs Clay Holmes · 2026-08-19T18:20Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 73°F, 5mph NE (calm), 85% humidity
Model finds lean 15.9% edge in this matchup
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 15.9%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
Cade Cavalli vs Kumar Rocker · 2026-08-20T00:05Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Model finds lean 13.9% edge in this matchup
Forecast: Washington Nationals (+130)
Model Edge: 13.9%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
Matt Wilkinson vs Parker Messick · 2026-08-19T22:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 78°F, 4mph NW (calm)
Away traveled 2160mi
Forecast: Cleveland Guardians -1.5
Model Edge: 13.4%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Michael King vs Robert Stock · 2026-08-19T17:10Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 87°F, 10mph SW (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.3 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (87°f)
Forecast: San Diego Padres (-134)
Model Edge: 12.7%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Jackson Jobe vs Paul Skenes · 2026-08-19T16:35Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 78°F, 8mph SW (blowing out), 64% humidity
Pitcher fip gap of 2.4 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (78°f)
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
Model Edge: 12.3%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Matthew Liberatore vs Chase Burns · 2026-08-19T22:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 83°F, 9mph SW (crosswind)
Weather factor in play (83°f)
Forecast: Cincinnati Reds -1.5
Model Edge: 10.7%
Unit Sizing: 0.25
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Roki Sasaki vs Kyle Freeland · 2026-08-20T00:40Z
HIGH
LEAN
–
warning 90°F, 8mph E (crosswind)
Weather factor in play (90°f)
Forecast: Colorado Rockies (+203)
Model Edge: 10.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
Brandon Pfaadt vs Payton Tolle · 2026-08-19T20:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning 88°F, 12mph W (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (88°f)
Forecast: UNDER 8.0
Model Edge: 7.1%
Unit Sizing: 0.15
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
Logan Gilbert vs Dustin May · 2026-08-19T23:40Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome — weather neutral
Away traveled 1684mi
Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers (-118)
Model Edge: 5.7%
Unit Sizing: 0.2
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 9 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
- Strongest signal: TOR at TB with 18.9% model edge
- 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
- Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot
Unlock all 11 forecasts
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