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Friday, August 21, 2026

11 games on the slate · 7 high-confidence games

7 High 4 Medium 0 Low

Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners

Matthew Boyd vs Emerson Hancock · 2026-08-22T02:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Away traveled 1729mi

Forecast: Seattle Mariners +1.5 Model Edge: 18.0% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Nick Lodolo vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 2026-08-22T01:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Away traveled 1577mi

Forecast: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Model Edge: 14.0% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Bubba Chandler vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 2026-08-22T02:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning 79°F, 5mph W (calm)

Away traveled 2131mi

Forecast: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Model Edge: 13.5% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins

Brad Lord vs Ryan Gusto · 2026-08-21T23:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 11.3% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Washington Nationals (+149) Model Edge: 11.3% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

Reid Detmers vs MacKenzie Gore · 2026-08-22T00:15Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 11.3% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Model Edge: 11.3% Unit Sizing: 0.25

Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies

Joey Cantillo vs Tanner Gordon · 2026-08-22T00:40Z

HIGH LEAN warning 93°F, 6mph W (calm)

Day after night

Forecast: Colorado Rockies (+157) Model Edge: 10.1% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Athletics @ Houston Astros

J.T. Ginn vs Hayden Wesneski · 2026-08-22T00:10Z

HIGH LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Away traveled 1630mi

Forecast: Athletics (+181) Model Edge: 10.0% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres

Connor Prielipp vs Randy Vasquez · 2026-08-22T01:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 74°F, 5mph SW (calm), 87% humidity

Away traveled 1530mi

Forecast: Minnesota Twins (+149) Model Edge: 9.3% Unit Sizing: 0.2

Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

Chris Sale vs Jacob Misiorowski · 2026-08-21T20:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning Dome — weather neutral

Model finds lean 7.3% edge in this matchup

Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers (-134) Model Edge: 7.3% Unit Sizing: 0.2

San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox

Logan Webb vs Sonny Gray · 2026-08-21T23:10Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 71°F, 5mph NE (calm), 69% humidity

Away traveled 2689mi

Forecast: UNDER 7.5 Model Edge: 6.1% Unit Sizing: 0.15

St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies

Hunter Dobbins vs Jesús Luzardo · 2026-08-21T22:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN warning 76°F, 2mph E (calm), 67% humidity

Pitcher fip gap of 1.6 points favors the home starter

Forecast: St. Louis Cardinals (+204) Model Edge: 5.0% Unit Sizing: 0.2

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

  • Model identified 7 high-edge games across today's 11-game slate
  • Strongest signal: CHC at SEA with 18.0% model edge

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